Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Euro 2012 Fantasy Player Pool - Day 12 Roundup

Day 11 wrapped up Euro 2012's Group stage in style. It featured a happy hello for Rooney, a fizzling farewell to Sheva, a doubled disappearance by Evra, and a wild where-the-hell-did-that-come-from by Larsson. 


For 48 minutes, I even got to entertain the idea of France making yet another early exit from a big tourney, which would've satisfied my anti-Gallic inclinations while also giving a tiny boost to my chances of somehow, some way climbing into the Top 20 of my own pool.


Of course I'm not so naive as to think that's actually going to happen. As much fun as I've had watching the games, tabulating the results, and doing the writeups for this pool....I have to admit it would be a LOT more fun to be doing all that and also be in contention for the big prizes at the end. 
Thankfully I have yet to break out the abacus
Shoot, I'd have been happy to have even been competitive for a day or two, instead of falling behind by 20 points on Day 1 and languishing at the bottom of the leaderboard ever since. I toyed with the idea of creating a Second Chance Pool for the knockout stage to give some of us one last shot at a prize and also allow me to test out some scoring system tweaks before we go live for Confederations Cup 2013 next summer.


But in the end I decided that I've been devoting enough of my time to soccer, spreadsheets, and sunk costs, so no Second Chance Pool. At least not one that's run by me, anyway. At least the competition we do have going is providing me with plenty of fascination, if not financial reward. 


Andrew L. has gone almost wire-to-wire as our leader so far, jumping out ahead on Day 1, slipping a bit over the next few, then re-emerging at the top on Day 6 and never looking back. His squad looks strong but not invulnerable, and he's not trying to hold off just one or two chasers....there's a big pack of owners that just need a couple goals from the right player and they'll be right there. Even if Andrew continues to dominate, the race for second place should be pretty compelling.


As for how Day 12 shaped those races, the big movers were Bryan C. and Dan M.  Bryan benefited from being the only owner with Seb Larsson ("The Extra 'S' is for 'Scoring'!") and Dan finally got a contribution from his captain Wayne Rooney. Both guys are in the middle of the pack and have a long way to go, but at least the day gave each some reason to hope that, unlike Seb and the Swedes, they're playing for more than just pride.


"What do you mean Sweden is eliminated???" - Bryan C.
With 28 out of the 29 of us scoring in double digits and an average score of 15.7, Brian E's 8.5 from the combo of Selin, Elm, Welbeck, and Ribery was Day 12's big negative outlier, and it dropped him several spots down, to within 10 points of the cellar. Austin S., you've still got a chance to climb off the bottom of the leaderboard, my friend.


Up at the top, Scott W. jumped back up into 2nd place as Mike S. and Kyle M. slipped a bit. The roster-watching begins in earnest now with the quarterfinals kicking off tomorrow, so let's take a look at who really matters on the Czech and Portugese rosters.


Looking at the seven squads currently within 25 fantasy points of the lead, there are 5 Petr Cech's and 2 Michael Kadlecs, to go with 4 Ronaldos, 2 Nanis, and 1 Pepe. 


Best case scenario for Andrew L. to shore up his lead is a big Portugese blowout that doesn't feature major contributions from Nani. Andrew has Ronaldo and he's one of the 2 Kadlecs. If the Czechs keep a clean sheet, those with Cech can expect to pick up a few extra points against Andrew, depending how many saves Petr is forced to make.
Scott W., currently in 2nd place and the only contender who owns Pepe, would also like a Portugese victory, but preferably of the 1-Nil variety, without Nani or CR(7)9 finding the scoresheet.
Which of these two will prove more valuable going forward?


For Ryan W. and Kyle M., in 3rd and 4th place respectively following the Group Stage, Thursday is all about Nani. If he scores they'll pick up some very valuable points against all those Ronaldo owners, but if he can't match or beat whatever Cristiano does, Ryan and Kyle will lose ground.


A rare Kadlec goal would be huge for currently 5th place Dan P. to move up into the 2nd/3rd range, but won't really help him against leader Andrew (They both have Kadlec/Ronaldo in this first quarterfinal).  


Mike S. and Tyson G. aren't out of it but don't look too strong to pick up any significant points tomorrow (Both have a Cech/Ronaldo combo)...instead they'll just hope to tread water on the leaderboard and stay within striking distance for their own unique opportunities to pay off later in the knockout (Mike w/ Pirlo and Fabregas, Tyson with Ashley Young and with Gomez in the Captain slot).


So even as the picture starts to clear up and the number of contenders continues to thin out, there's still some drama to anticipate down the stretch.  Let's end today's report with a breakdown of some numbers from the group stage, as well as our "Team of the Tournament" so far.




Group Stage Scoring


Avg. Daily Points:
  • All Groups Combined - 443
  • Group A- 366.5
  • Group B- 568.0
  • Group C- 391.8
  • Group D- 445.6
So we can see that scoring in Group D was right at the average, while A and C lagged far behind, while B exploded.
  • Highest Single Day - Day 10, Group B - 599.3
  • Lowest Single Day - Day 5, Group A - 311.3
In fact, each day of Group A scored in the 300s, while each day of Group B scored in the 500s


Average Owner Scores:


Daily Average - 15.3
Highest Owner Score - 38, Scott W., Day 6 (Pepe, Gomez, Eriksen, RVP Captain)
Lowest Owner Score - -2.2, Kyle S. Day 1 (Cech, Anyukov, Pasthatpapolous, Szczesny)


Team of the Tournament (Through Group Stage)


GK - Shay Given, IRE, 9 pts, 3 Owners
GK - Joe Hart, ENG, 14.7 pts, 5 Owners
DEF - Vasilis Torosidis, GRE 9.5 pts, 7 Owners
DEF - Pepe, POR, 15 pts, 1 Owner
DEF - Theodor Gebre Selassie, CZE 12.5 pts
DEF - Gerard Pique, ESP, 15 pts, 2 Owners
DEF - Phillipe Mexes, FRE, 8.5 pts, 1 Owner

MID - Michael Krohn-Delhi, DEN, 25 pts, 0 Owners
MID - Alan Dzagoev, RUS, 25 pts, 7 Owners
MID - Seb Larsson, SWE, 22 pts, 1 Owner
MID - Jakub Blazcykowski, POL, 17 pts, 6 Owners
MID - Arjen Robben, HOL, 12 pts, 3 Owners
FWD - Mario Gomez, GER, 25 pts, 5 Owners
FWD - Mario Mandzukic, CRO, 20 pts, 0 Owners
WC - Andrea Pirlo, ITA, 22 pts, 3 Owners


Total- 252.2 pts




Note that this is not neccesarily the highest scoring player at each position or for each nation (though in most cases each guy fits one or both of those categories).  This list is the highest possible scoring team I could find that fits within our rules...sadly two members of this squad went completely unselected in our pool. 


If anyone doubts me and thinks they can put a team together that outscores this one, have at it!

No comments:

Post a Comment