Euro 2012 Diary, Day 6 - Desperate Dutchmen

It's been a couple days since I've pumped out any non-Fantasy Pool related thoughts on the Euros.  Chalk it up to equal parts busyness, fatigue, and lack of inspiration. Almost halfway through the group stage and I have only really gotten to sit and watch a couple of games with full focus - and unfortunately one of those games was England v France, which literally put me to sleep in the second half.

Day 6 brings a remedy for some of those problems, but not all.  I'm still busy and I'm again on the day shift which means not watching the games live, but I've finally caught up on sleep, I feel fantastic, and today's matchups come loaded with inspiration.

Topping the list of things to look forward to: Desperate Dutchmen. 

Pegged as potential champions by this column and others I'm sure, Holland's punishment for their flat opening effort vs. Denmark is to now face the very real prospect of elimination from Euro 2012 after just two matches.  That would be quite the steep fall from the World Cup Final two years ago, and some might even call that the proper karmic reward for the way the team acquitted itself in that 2010 game.

But don't count me among those anonymous "some." I remain a bigtime fan of the Dutch game, and in general I don't like the idea that a one-off, even a massively disgraceful one-off, should be allowed to destroy a national reputation carefully crafted through decades of brilliantly inventive, sometimes mystical football.

Contenders stumbling in the opening match of a big tournament is nothing new, and the loss to the Danes in and of itself wouldn't necessarily cripple Holland.  The problem is who they're facing, obviously, and the fact that if they lose today and Denmark merely draws with Portugal, it's "пока, Oranje!" for Euro 2012.

Arjen ponders the meaning of it all

Success today will be a matter of becoming more clinical.  Against Denmark, the Dutch had 28 shots but just 5 hit the target.  Arjen Robben was particularly wasteful.  My guarantees aren't always worth much but I'm Lead Pipe Locking this prediction: No way does Holland even sniff 20+ shots vs. Germany....they may end up lucky to get 10.  

Holland simply must up their accuracy to stand a chance, they'll need to make fewer chances count for more on the scoreboard, and the worry is they'll be so focused on the attack they're bound to slip up at the back somewhere and let the very formidable German attack put at least one past their own defense. It's a massively uphill battle they face today, no doubt, and that's enough to make today the most compelling of the tournament so far, by a healthy stretch.

One thing they have going for them: The DENvPOR match is first on today's docket, so those two teams won't be able to strategically alter their own tactics based on where the Dutch are in the pool standings, they'll have to play it straight. Portugal never really threatened much vs. Germany in their opening match, but now they have to play with a fire under their feet, and don't forget the Danish defense did allow Holland to fire off more than two dozen shots on goal against them...Portugal's world class talents up front just need to display similar aggression - but actually convert a chance or two.

The Action Figure Embodiment of my sports fandom

Whatever happens, I have to apologize to my Dutch friend Marcel for even putting him in a position where he has to worry this much about his squad. I'm a tremendous sports jinx (just last night I ended a Colby Lewis perfect game bid with an ill-timed text to a buddy). At this point I should know much better than to pick teams that I actually *want* to win...or at least know better than to talk about it.

But of course I can't help myself, I tend to talk myself into my own biases when it comes to sports predictions.  It's one reason I was absolutely awful at betting games when I used to be big into that during college. It's part of my personality and part of my fandom to get excited and get vocal about the things I like, and to believe in best case scenarios.  It's often disappointing and painful, but for me it makes the successes even more rewarding.

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Quick Picks:

Well, first off, I didn't officially post my picks online pregame yesterday, so you're just going to have to trust me that I finally got a result right, and even nailed the scoreline! Here's my picks for yesterday and today:

-Czech Republic 2-1 over Greece

-Russia 2-0 over Poland

-Holland draws 2-2 with Germany

-Portugal 2-0 over Denmark

Monday's record: 1-1

Overall: 1-5

Perfect Scorelines: 1

Fantasy Pool - 47.2 points, 28th Place of 29 (Gets More Embarrassing Each Day)

Today's Fantasy Lineup:
Christian Eriksen - DEN
Mezut Ozil - GER
Wesley Sneijder - NED
Cristiano Ronaldo - POR

Let's see some goals, boys.