Euro 2012 Fantasy Player Pool - Semi #2 Roundup

When Mezut Ozil stepped up and banged home a penalty kick in the 94th minute of the second semifinal of Euro 2012, no one watching, save for possibly GiGi Buffon, thought the gifted goal would actually lead to a change in the match's end result.

But while it may've been too little, too late for Germany, Ozil's conversion from the spot went a long way towards shaping the final standings on our fantasy leaderboard.

Besides just the big points to Ozil himself, the goal erased clean sheet bonuses that the Italian defense had seemed destined  to earn most of the day. Even though most of Mezut's owners in contention lost those bonuses along with everyone else, they more than made up for it with a big chunk of MID Goal points all to themselves.

It's ok, Mezut...you did everything you could

That importance reflects itself in the penultimate standings sheet.

Andrew K. and John M., fringe contenders just a few days ago, used double points from Ozil to jump into 3rd and 4th place, respectively.  Steve J. began the day in 2nd place and remains there now...but thanks to Ozil he closed the gap on leader Andrew L. from almost 13 points to less than 3.

Andrew had reason to hope his lead would stay a little bigger once Jogi Loew's double-secret starting XI was finally revealed to include Mario Gomez.  But something reallllll dicey must've happened to Mario between the Group and Knockout stages...he didn't even appear to be the same player.  He picked up a token point for starting but went off at half.  It was a stunning fall from fantasy grace for the man who seemed to have the Golden Boot in the bag after his first couple of matches.

Gomez actually remains tied in the race for tourney top scorer, but he's fallen far behind in the battle for ownership of the title "Super Mario." Sure, Gomez held off the challenge of Mandzukic, but he was forever left in the dust by this moment:

Balotelli's breakthrough brace shook up the bottom half of our standings much the same way Ozil's meaningless PK did up top. Three owners have him, including yours truly, and even though all of us were long since eliminated as threats to make the money, it was nice to get a big boost up the Pride Leaderboard standings.  A Top 20 finish would almost feel like a victory for me at this point.

And so we find ourselves at the Final.  While this game holds soooooooooo much promise as far as drama and storylines for soccer fans to enjoy, sadly it may not make much impact on our fantasy game. The real impact of Italy's upset and Germany's elimination was the removal of the only real significant roster diversity left in the pool.

But even we're unlikely to see any stings in the tail today, it's not impossible. Let's break it down:

• Andrew L. - 291.5 - CASILLAS/Chiellini
• Steve J. - 288.9 - RAMOS / Buffon
• Andrew K. - 285.8 - Alba/Buffon
• John M. - 278.6 - Casillas/Chiellini
• Ryan W. - 275.7 - Casillas/Chiellini
• Michael L. - 269.7 - CASILLAS/Pirlo

The first takeaway is that, even though the margin has finally been whittled down to its smallest size since he claimed the lead on Day 6, Andrew L. would have to suffer a catastrophe to lose the lead today. Unless Ramos or Alba can score a goal, the double points from Casillas should be enough to hold off any challenge....I don't think Buffon can outscore Chiellini by enough to let Steve J. or Andrew K. make the jump.  It's up to Sergio or Jordi to break Andrew L.'s heart.

It's all about these two today. Sergio looks ready.

The scoring battle between Ramos and Alba is also important for determining 2nd place...Alba leads Ramos 33-29 over the course of the tourney  so far, but he'll need to double that margin today in order for Andrew K. to jump Steve J.

A little further down, John M. is guaranteed to finish ahead of Ryan W. since they have the same combo...though it will be very difficult for John to jump into the Top 3, probably taking a card or two for each of the Spanish  defenders owned by those above him.

Meanwhile Michael L. remains a very intriguing wild card pick.  Since he gets double points from Casillas, he could very easily jump both guys ahead of him who are both stuck with just the singular contribution from Iker. Pirlo has yet to break double-digit scoring in a single game, but if he does so for the first time today, you have to like Michael's chances of a money finish.

Dan P. didn't make my breakdown list...but if Andres Iniesta has a hat trick, a big check should suffice in place of an apology.

There's not really a ton of interesting things to say about the stragglers at the bottom of the pool (that's right, I'm talking shit now after my Ozil/Balotelli combo shot me out of this group)....but there is this: Heading into the Final, 3 of the Bottom 5 in our pool have Xavi as their captain.  That will almost certainly change in the final standings, but it does give the Xavi-haters amongst us (guilty) something to smile about.